feat: simulate trading fees/slippage in backtest, compute real PnL for real trades

Backtest/walk-forward priced every fill at the exact candle close with zero
cost, making reported win rate/profit factor systematically more optimistic
than live trading. Added configurable taker-fee + slippage simulation
(defaults 0.1%/0.05% per fill) applied to every entry/exit, threaded through
walk-forward's grid search and both API endpoints.

sync_real_trades() hardcoded pnl=0 for every real trade needing it, silently
reporting break-even for real-money trades regardless of actual outcome.
Replaced with FIFO lot matching per (user, symbol, exchange), and fixed
orders.py to persist the exchange's actual average fill price instead of
the (always-None-for-market-orders) requested price, so there's real price
data to match against.

Also verified (and locked in with regression tests) that Divergence/SMC's
pivot-confirmation delay is already causally consistent between live and
backtest — no repaint, no look-ahead leak.

187 backend tests pass (+17).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Le
2026-07-04 14:50:36 +07:00
parent 1bcd15829e
commit 662586c6bc
12 changed files with 733 additions and 90 deletions
+12 -3
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@@ -11,7 +11,12 @@ from app.database import get_db
from app.models.candle import Candle
from app.models.symbol import Symbol
from app.models.exchange import Exchange
from app.services.backtest_engine import run_backtest as _run_backtest, MIN_CANDLES
from app.services.backtest_engine import (
run_backtest as _run_backtest,
MIN_CANDLES,
DEFAULT_TAKER_FEE_PCT,
DEFAULT_SLIPPAGE_PCT,
)
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
router = APIRouter(prefix="/backtest", tags=["backtest"])
@@ -76,11 +81,13 @@ async def run_backtest(
timeframe: str = Query("30m"),
days: int = Query(7),
trade_size: float = Query(10.0),
fee_pct: float = Query(DEFAULT_TAKER_FEE_PCT, ge=0, description="Round-trip-per-fill taker fee, e.g. 0.001 = 0.1%"),
slippage_pct: float = Query(DEFAULT_SLIPPAGE_PCT, ge=0, description="Adverse slippage per fill, e.g. 0.0005 = 0.05%"),
db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db),
):
"""Run backtest and return JSON results."""
result = await _run_backtest(
db, symbol, exchange, timeframe, days, Decimal(str(trade_size))
db, symbol, exchange, timeframe, days, Decimal(str(trade_size)), fee_pct, slippage_pct,
)
if "error" in result:
raise HTTPException(status_code=400, detail=result["error"])
@@ -94,7 +101,9 @@ async def run_backtest_post(
timeframe: str = Query("30m"),
days: int = Query(7),
trade_size: float = Query(10.0),
fee_pct: float = Query(DEFAULT_TAKER_FEE_PCT, ge=0),
slippage_pct: float = Query(DEFAULT_SLIPPAGE_PCT, ge=0),
db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db),
):
"""Alias for GET /backtest/run — supports POST method."""
return await run_backtest(symbol, exchange, timeframe, days, trade_size, db)
return await run_backtest(symbol, exchange, timeframe, days, trade_size, fee_pct, slippage_pct, db)
+6 -2
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@@ -96,7 +96,11 @@ async def place_order(
current_user.username, exchange_name, req.symbol, req.side, req.amount,
)
# Persist to real_trades
# Persist to real_trades. For market orders `req.price` is None (no
# limit price was ever set) — the actual execution price only comes
# back from the exchange as `order.average`/`order.price`. Without
# it, this row would have no price at all and PnL could never be
# computed for it later (see sync_real_trades' FIFO PnL matching).
real_trade = RealTrade(
user_id=current_user.id,
exchange=exchange_name,
@@ -104,7 +108,7 @@ async def place_order(
side=req.side,
order_type=req.order_type,
amount=req.amount,
price=req.price,
price=order.average or order.price or req.price,
filled_amount=order.filled,
status=order.status,
order_id=order.order_id,
+4
View File
@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ from app.database import get_db
from app.core.deps import get_current_user
from app.models.user import User as UserModel
from app.services.walk_forward import run_walk_forward
from app.services.backtest_engine import DEFAULT_TAKER_FEE_PCT, DEFAULT_SLIPPAGE_PCT
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
router = APIRouter(prefix="/walk-forward", tags=["walk_forward"])
@@ -35,6 +36,8 @@ async def run(
train_days: int = Query(270, ge=30, description="Train window size per fold, in days"),
test_days: int = Query(90, ge=14, description="Held-out test window size per fold, in days"),
trade_size: float = Query(10.0),
fee_pct: float = Query(DEFAULT_TAKER_FEE_PCT, ge=0, description="Round-trip-per-fill taker fee, e.g. 0.001 = 0.1%"),
slippage_pct: float = Query(DEFAULT_SLIPPAGE_PCT, ge=0, description="Adverse slippage per fill, e.g. 0.0005 = 0.05%"),
db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db),
current_user: UserModel = Depends(get_current_user),
):
@@ -43,6 +46,7 @@ async def run(
db, symbol, exchange, timeframe,
total_days=total_days, train_days=train_days, test_days=test_days,
trade_size=Decimal(str(trade_size)),
fee_pct=fee_pct, slippage_pct=slippage_pct,
)
if "error" in result:
raise HTTPException(status_code=400, detail=result["error"])
+105 -49
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@@ -37,6 +37,77 @@ from app.services.signal_scoring import (
# Min candles for warmup: BB(20) + RSI(14) + some room = 30
MIN_CANDLES = 30
# Trading-cost defaults — previously the simulator priced every fill at the
# exact candle close with zero cost, which made every backtest/walk-forward
# report systematically more profitable than live trading could ever be.
# Taker fee: 0.1% per fill (0.2% round-trip) matches typical crypto spot
# taker fees without VIP/token discounts (Binance, MEXC). Slippage: 0.05%
# per fill is a conservative estimate for liquid majors on market orders —
# thinner symbols would see more in reality, but this at least stops
# results from assuming frictionless fills.
DEFAULT_TAKER_FEE_PCT = 0.001
DEFAULT_SLIPPAGE_PCT = 0.0005
def _fill_price(mark_price: float, direction: str, is_entry: bool, slippage_pct: float) -> float:
"""Simulate a realistic market-order fill price — slippage always moves
the price against the trader, never in their favor.
LONG entry / SHORT exit both buy (fill above mark price).
SHORT entry / LONG exit both sell (fill below mark price).
"""
buying = (direction == "LONG") == is_entry
return mark_price * (1 + slippage_pct) if buying else mark_price * (1 - slippage_pct)
def _open_position(direction: str, mark_price: float, timestamp, index: int,
trade_size: Decimal, entry_signal: str,
fee_pct: float, slippage_pct: float) -> dict:
"""Build a new open position dict, applying entry slippage/fees.
`quantity` is sized off the slipped fill price (not the raw mark price)
so that `entry_price * quantity == trade_size`, matching how a real
market order spends a fixed quote-currency amount and receives fewer
units when the fill is worse than the observed price.
"""
entry_price = _fill_price(mark_price, direction, True, slippage_pct)
quantity = float(trade_size) / entry_price
entry_fee = entry_price * quantity * fee_pct
return {
"direction": direction, "entry_price": entry_price,
"entry_time": timestamp, "quantity": quantity,
"entry_signal": entry_signal, "entry_index": index, "status": "OPEN",
"entry_fee": entry_fee,
}
def _close_position(position: dict, mark_price: float, timestamp, exit_reason: str,
fee_pct: float, slippage_pct: float) -> dict:
"""Close an open position in-place, applying exit slippage/fees.
`pnl` is the NET result (gross price movement minus round-trip fees) —
every caller downstream (_compute_stats, walk_forward's fold scoring)
reads `pnl` directly, so this is the only place cost needs to be
subtracted for it to flow through the whole system.
"""
direction = position["direction"]
entry_price = position["entry_price"]
quantity = position["quantity"]
exit_price = _fill_price(mark_price, direction, False, slippage_pct)
exit_fee = exit_price * quantity * fee_pct
if direction == "LONG":
gross_pnl = (exit_price - entry_price) * quantity
else:
gross_pnl = (entry_price - exit_price) * quantity
entry_fee = position.get("entry_fee", 0.0)
fees = entry_fee + exit_fee
position.update({
"exit_price": exit_price, "exit_time": timestamp,
"pnl": gross_pnl - fees, "gross_pnl": gross_pnl, "fees": fees,
"status": "CLOSED", "exit_reason": exit_reason,
})
return position
# Bounded trailing-window sizes used when replaying indicators per candle.
# Every consumer in signal_scoring.py only ever reads the last 1-2 elements
# of these arrays except the BB squeeze check (lookback=10), so windows
@@ -433,12 +504,20 @@ def _simulate_from_scores(
strong_threshold: float = 4.0,
signal_threshold: float = 1.0,
max_hold_candles: int = 48,
fee_pct: float = DEFAULT_TAKER_FEE_PCT,
slippage_pct: float = DEFAULT_SLIPPAGE_PCT,
) -> tuple[list[dict], list[dict]]:
"""Cheap half of simulation: turn a precomputed score series into
signals + trades for one choice of thresholds.
See `_compute_scores_series` for the expensive half — run once,
reused across every threshold combination a grid search tries.
Every fill (entry and exit) goes through `_fill_price`/`_open_position`/
`_close_position` so simulated trades pay the same round-trip fee and
adverse slippage a live market order would, instead of pricing fills at
the exact candle close for free — see DEFAULT_TAKER_FEE_PCT/
DEFAULT_SLIPPAGE_PCT above.
"""
all_signals: list[dict] = []
trades: list[dict] = []
@@ -466,77 +545,43 @@ def _simulate_from_scores(
if signal_type in (STRONG_BUY, BUY):
if current_position and current_position["direction"] == "SHORT":
if signal_type == STRONG_BUY:
entry_price = current_position["entry_price"]
qty = current_position["quantity"]
pnl = (entry_price - latest_close) * qty
current_position.update({
"exit_price": latest_close, "exit_time": timestamp,
"pnl": pnl, "status": "CLOSED", "exit_reason": "REVERSAL",
})
_close_position(current_position, latest_close, timestamp, "REVERSAL", fee_pct, slippage_pct)
trades.append(current_position)
current_position = None
else:
continue
if not current_position:
qty = float(trade_size) / latest_close
current_position = {
"direction": "LONG", "entry_price": latest_close,
"entry_time": timestamp, "quantity": qty,
"entry_signal": signal_type, "entry_index": i, "status": "OPEN",
}
current_position = _open_position(
"LONG", latest_close, timestamp, i, trade_size, signal_type, fee_pct, slippage_pct,
)
elif signal_type in (STRONG_SELL, SELL):
if current_position and current_position["direction"] == "LONG":
if signal_type == STRONG_SELL:
entry_price = current_position["entry_price"]
qty = current_position["quantity"]
pnl = (latest_close - entry_price) * qty
current_position.update({
"exit_price": latest_close, "exit_time": timestamp,
"pnl": pnl, "status": "CLOSED", "exit_reason": "REVERSAL",
})
_close_position(current_position, latest_close, timestamp, "REVERSAL", fee_pct, slippage_pct)
trades.append(current_position)
current_position = None
else:
continue
if not current_position:
qty = float(trade_size) / latest_close
current_position = {
"direction": "SHORT", "entry_price": latest_close,
"entry_time": timestamp, "quantity": qty,
"entry_signal": signal_type, "entry_index": i, "status": "OPEN",
}
current_position = _open_position(
"SHORT", latest_close, timestamp, i, trade_size, signal_type, fee_pct, slippage_pct,
)
if current_position and current_position["status"] == "OPEN":
hold = i - current_position["entry_index"]
if hold >= max_hold_candles:
entry_price = current_position["entry_price"]
qty = current_position["quantity"]
if current_position["direction"] == "LONG":
pnl = (latest_close - entry_price) * qty
else:
pnl = (entry_price - latest_close) * qty
current_position.update({
"exit_price": latest_close, "exit_time": timestamp,
"pnl": pnl, "status": "CLOSED", "exit_reason": "TIME_LIMIT",
})
_close_position(current_position, latest_close, timestamp, "TIME_LIMIT", fee_pct, slippage_pct)
trades.append(current_position)
current_position = None
# Close final position
if current_position and current_position["status"] == "OPEN":
last_close = float(candles[-1].close)
entry_price = current_position["entry_price"]
qty = current_position["quantity"]
if current_position["direction"] == "LONG":
pnl = (last_close - entry_price) * qty
else:
pnl = (entry_price - last_close) * qty
current_position.update({
"exit_price": last_close,
"exit_time": candles[-1].timestamp.isoformat(),
"pnl": pnl, "status": "CLOSED", "exit_reason": "END_OF_DATA",
})
_close_position(
current_position, last_close, candles[-1].timestamp.isoformat(),
"END_OF_DATA", fee_pct, slippage_pct,
)
trades.append(current_position)
return all_signals, trades
@@ -550,6 +595,8 @@ def _simulate_trades(
signal_threshold: float = 1.0,
max_hold_candles: int = 48,
active_from_index: int = MIN_CANDLES,
fee_pct: float = DEFAULT_TAKER_FEE_PCT,
slippage_pct: float = DEFAULT_SLIPPAGE_PCT,
) -> tuple[list[dict], list[dict]]:
"""Convenience wrapper: compute scores then simulate with one set of
thresholds. Callers trying many threshold combinations against the
@@ -558,7 +605,10 @@ def _simulate_trades(
combination instead — see walk_forward.py.
"""
scores_series = _compute_scores_series(candles, precomputed, active_from_index)
return _simulate_from_scores(candles, scores_series, trade_size, strong_threshold, signal_threshold, max_hold_candles)
return _simulate_from_scores(
candles, scores_series, trade_size, strong_threshold, signal_threshold,
max_hold_candles, fee_pct, slippage_pct,
)
def _compute_stats(all_signals: list[dict], trades: list[dict]) -> dict:
@@ -578,6 +628,7 @@ def _compute_stats(all_signals: list[dict], trades: list[dict]) -> dict:
profit_factor = round(abs(gross_profit / gross_loss), 2) if gross_loss != 0 else None
avg_win = round(gross_profit / len(winning_trades), 2) if winning_trades else None
avg_loss = round(gross_loss / len(losing_trades), 2) if losing_trades else None
total_fees = round(sum(t.get("fees", 0) for t in closed_trades), 2)
best_trade = max(closed_trades, key=lambda t: t.get("pnl", 0)) if closed_trades else None
worst_trade = min(closed_trades, key=lambda t: t.get("pnl", 0)) if closed_trades else None
@@ -595,6 +646,7 @@ def _compute_stats(all_signals: list[dict], trades: list[dict]) -> dict:
"profit_factor": profit_factor,
"avg_win": avg_win,
"avg_loss": avg_loss,
"total_fees": total_fees,
"best_trade": {
"direction": best_trade.get("direction"),
"entry_price": round(best_trade["entry_price"], 4),
@@ -622,6 +674,8 @@ async def run_backtest(
timeframe: str = "30m",
days: int = 7,
trade_size: Decimal = Decimal("10"),
fee_pct: float = DEFAULT_TAKER_FEE_PCT,
slippage_pct: float = DEFAULT_SLIPPAGE_PCT,
) -> dict:
"""Run a single backtest over the last `days` days and return structured results."""
db_symbol = await _fetch_symbol(db, symbol, exchange)
@@ -642,7 +696,9 @@ async def run_backtest(
return {"error": f"No candle data found for {symbol} on {timeframe}. The exchange may not support this pair."}
precomputed = _precompute_indicators(candles, timeframe)
all_signals, trades = _simulate_trades(candles, precomputed, trade_size)
all_signals, trades = _simulate_trades(
candles, precomputed, trade_size, fee_pct=fee_pct, slippage_pct=slippage_pct,
)
stats = _compute_stats(all_signals, trades)
return {
+117 -28
View File
@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ from __future__ import annotations
import json
import logging
from collections import defaultdict
from datetime import datetime, timezone, timedelta
from decimal import Decimal
from sqlalchemy import and_, desc, select
@@ -351,55 +352,143 @@ async def execute_signal_trade(
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
# Real Trade Sync — closes stale real trades
# Real Trade Sync — closes stale real trades, computes real PnL
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
async def sync_real_trades() -> None:
"""Sync real trades: close stale ones, calculate PnL for closed ones.
async def _recompute_realized_pnl(db: AsyncSession) -> int:
"""Recompute realized PnL for every filled real trade via FIFO lot
matching, grouped by (user_id, symbol, exchange).
Called periodically (every 5 min) by the scheduler.
Fixes: real trades were never being closed or having PnL calculated.
`RealTrade` rows represent individual order fills (one buy or one
sell), not paired open/close positions like `HypotheticalTrade` — so a
single row's PnL can't be read off itself. This walks each group's
fills in chronological order, matching each buy against any open SHORT
lots first (then opening a LONG lot with anything left over), and each
sell against open LONG lots first (then opening a SHORT lot) — the
realized PnL from whatever portion closes an existing lot is assigned
to that fill's row. A fill that only opens a new position (nothing to
close yet) has no realized PnL and is left at pnl=None until a later
fill closes it.
Recomputes from the full history every time rather than accumulating
incrementally, which is safe to rerun (idempotent) — the trade volume
this endpoint supports (manual/auto real trading through one connected
exchange per user, not HFT) makes a full recompute cheap enough to run
on every periodic sync.
Rows with no recorded price (e.g. legacy market-order fills persisted
before `orders.py` started storing `order.average`) can't be matched
and are skipped — they neither consume nor produce a lot, so a FIFO
walk that includes them would silently misattribute PnL to whichever
fill happens to match next.
"""
result = await db.execute(
select(RealTrade)
.where(RealTrade.filled_amount > 0, RealTrade.price.isnot(None))
.order_by(RealTrade.user_id, RealTrade.symbol, RealTrade.exchange, RealTrade.created_at.asc())
)
trades = result.scalars().all()
groups: dict[tuple, list[RealTrade]] = defaultdict(list)
for t in trades:
groups[(t.user_id, t.symbol, t.exchange)].append(t)
updated = 0
for _key, group in groups.items():
long_lots: list[list] = [] # each lot: [remaining_qty: Decimal, entry_price: Decimal]
short_lots: list[list] = []
for t in group:
side = (t.side or "").lower()
qty = Decimal(t.filled_amount)
price = Decimal(t.price)
if side not in ("buy", "sell") or qty <= 0 or price <= 0:
continue
opposing = short_lots if side == "buy" else long_lots
same_side_lots = long_lots if side == "buy" else short_lots
remaining = qty
realized = Decimal("0")
matched_cost = Decimal("0")
while remaining > 0 and opposing:
lot = opposing[0]
matched = min(remaining, lot[0])
if side == "buy":
realized += (lot[1] - price) * matched # closing a short: profit if price fell
else:
realized += (price - lot[1]) * matched # closing a long: profit if price rose
matched_cost += lot[1] * matched
lot[0] -= matched
remaining -= matched
if lot[0] <= 0:
opposing.pop(0)
if remaining > 0:
same_side_lots.append([remaining, price])
if matched_cost > 0:
pnl_percent = (realized / matched_cost) * Decimal("100")
if t.pnl != realized or t.pnl_percent != pnl_percent:
t.pnl = realized
t.pnl_percent = pnl_percent
updated += 1
elif t.pnl is not None:
# Pure opening fill — nothing existed yet to realize against.
t.pnl = None
t.pnl_percent = None
updated += 1
return updated
async def sync_real_trades() -> None:
"""Sync real trades: close stale open orders, then (re)compute realized
PnL for every filled trade via FIFO matching (see
`_recompute_realized_pnl`).
Called periodically (every 5 min) by the scheduler. Previously this
force-set pnl=0 for every stale-closed AND every already-closed-but-
unpriced trade regardless of whether it actually filled — silently
reporting "break-even" for real-money trades that may have made or
lost real money. Now pnl is only ever 0/None for orders that genuinely
never filled; any order with a nonzero fill gets a real FIFO-matched
PnL once a later trade closes its position.
"""
async with async_session_factory() as db:
# 1. Fetch open real trades
# 1. Force-close real orders stuck "open" too long (exchange likely
# never filled them). Only the STATUS changes here for anything
# with a partial fill — its PnL (if any) comes from the FIFO
# recompute below once/if a later trade closes it out.
result = await db.execute(
select(RealTrade).where(RealTrade.status == "open")
)
open_trades = result.scalars().all()
if not open_trades:
return
now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
stale_closed = 0
for trade in open_trades:
hold_duration = now - trade.created_at
if hold_duration > timedelta(hours=24):
trade.status = "closed"
trade.closed_at = now
trade.pnl = Decimal("0")
trade.pnl_percent = Decimal("0")
if not trade.filled_amount or trade.filled_amount <= 0:
# Never filled at all — there is genuinely no PnL.
trade.pnl = Decimal("0")
trade.pnl_percent = Decimal("0")
stale_closed += 1
logger.info(
"🔒 Real trade #%d CLOSED (time limit 24h): %s %s",
trade.id, trade.side, trade.symbol,
)
# 2. Calculate PnL for closed trades missing it
result2 = await db.execute(
select(RealTrade).where(
and_(RealTrade.status.in_(["closed", "filled"]),
RealTrade.pnl.is_(None))
)
)
closed_no_pnl = result2.scalars().all()
for trade in closed_no_pnl:
trade.pnl = Decimal("0")
trade.pnl_percent = Decimal("0")
# 2. Recompute realized PnL for every filled trade (not just ones
# missing it — a new closing fill can retroactively realize PnL on
# an earlier opening fill that already had pnl=None).
updated = await _recompute_realized_pnl(db)
await db.commit()
if open_trades or closed_no_pnl:
if stale_closed or updated:
logger.info(
"Real trade sync: %d open checked, %d closed PnL fixed",
len(open_trades), len(closed_no_pnl),
"Real trade sync: %d stale trades closed, %d PnL rows recomputed",
stale_closed, updated,
)
+25 -6
View File
@@ -26,6 +26,8 @@ from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
from app.services.backtest_engine import (
MIN_CANDLES,
DEFAULT_TAKER_FEE_PCT,
DEFAULT_SLIPPAGE_PCT,
_fetch_symbol,
_fetch_candles,
_precompute_indicators,
@@ -138,7 +140,7 @@ async def _prepare_window(
return candles, precomputed, active_from_index
def _run_combo(candles, scores_series, trade_size, params):
def _run_combo(candles, scores_series, trade_size, params, fee_pct, slippage_pct):
"""Apply one parameter combination to an already-computed score series
(see `_compute_scores_series`) — cheap, no indicator recomputation."""
return _simulate_from_scores(
@@ -146,6 +148,8 @@ def _run_combo(candles, scores_series, trade_size, params):
strong_threshold=params["strong_threshold"],
signal_threshold=params["signal_threshold"],
max_hold_candles=int(params["max_hold_candles"]),
fee_pct=fee_pct,
slippage_pct=slippage_pct,
)
@@ -154,12 +158,20 @@ def _grid_search(
scores_series: list[dict],
param_grid: dict[str, list[float]],
trade_size: Decimal,
fee_pct: float = DEFAULT_TAKER_FEE_PCT,
slippage_pct: float = DEFAULT_SLIPPAGE_PCT,
) -> tuple[dict[str, float], float, dict]:
"""Try every combination in param_grid against one precomputed score
series, return the one that scores best on the train window by
`_fold_score`. The 13-algorithm scoring itself already happened once
to produce `scores_series` — this loop only replays cheap threshold
comparisons and trade bookkeeping per combination."""
comparisons and trade bookkeeping per combination.
Fees/slippage are applied here too (not just the final OOS report) so
the grid search picks parameters that hold up after trading costs,
instead of favoring high-frequency combos that only look good when
fills are free.
"""
keys = list(param_grid.keys())
best_params: dict[str, float] | None = None
best_score = float("-inf")
@@ -167,7 +179,7 @@ def _grid_search(
for combo in product(*(param_grid[k] for k in keys)):
params = dict(zip(keys, combo))
all_signals, trades = _run_combo(candles, scores_series, trade_size, params)
all_signals, trades = _run_combo(candles, scores_series, trade_size, params, fee_pct, slippage_pct)
closed_trades = [t for t in trades if t.get("status") == "CLOSED"]
score = _fold_score(closed_trades)
if score > best_score:
@@ -179,7 +191,7 @@ def _grid_search(
# Every combo scored -inf (too few trades) — still report the
# grid's first combination so the fold has *something* to show.
best_params = {k: param_grid[k][0] for k in keys}
all_signals, trades = _run_combo(candles, scores_series, trade_size, best_params)
all_signals, trades = _run_combo(candles, scores_series, trade_size, best_params, fee_pct, slippage_pct)
best_stats = _compute_stats(all_signals, trades)
return best_params, best_score, best_stats
@@ -209,6 +221,8 @@ async def run_walk_forward(
test_days: int = 90,
trade_size: Decimal = Decimal("10"),
param_grid: dict[str, list[float]] | None = None,
fee_pct: float = DEFAULT_TAKER_FEE_PCT,
slippage_pct: float = DEFAULT_SLIPPAGE_PCT,
) -> dict:
"""Run a full walk-forward analysis: optimize params per fold on the
train window, evaluate out-of-sample on the test window, then stitch
@@ -234,7 +248,7 @@ async def run_walk_forward(
train_scores = _compute_scores_series(train_candles, train_precomputed, train_active_from)
best_params, _train_score, train_stats = _grid_search(
train_candles, train_scores, param_grid, trade_size,
train_candles, train_scores, param_grid, trade_size, fee_pct, slippage_pct,
)
test_window = await _prepare_window(db, db_symbol.id, timeframe, spec["test_start"], spec["test_end"])
@@ -243,7 +257,7 @@ async def run_walk_forward(
test_candles, test_precomputed, test_active_from = test_window
test_scores = _compute_scores_series(test_candles, test_precomputed, test_active_from)
test_signals, test_trades = _run_combo(test_candles, test_scores, trade_size, best_params)
test_signals, test_trades = _run_combo(test_candles, test_scores, trade_size, best_params, fee_pct, slippage_pct)
test_stats = _compute_stats(test_signals, test_trades)
stitched_oos_trades.extend(t for t in test_trades if t.get("status") == "CLOSED")
@@ -265,6 +279,7 @@ async def run_walk_forward(
"win_rate": test_stats["trades"]["win_rate"],
"total_pnl": test_stats["trades"]["total_pnl"],
"profit_factor": test_stats["trades"]["profit_factor"],
"total_fees": test_stats["trades"]["total_fees"],
},
})
@@ -282,6 +297,7 @@ async def run_walk_forward(
oos_total_pnl = sum(t.get("pnl", 0) for t in stitched_oos_trades)
oos_win_rate = round(len(oos_wins) / len(stitched_oos_trades) * 100, 1) if stitched_oos_trades else 0.0
oos_profit_factor = round(abs(oos_gross_profit / oos_gross_loss), 2) if oos_gross_loss != 0 else None
oos_total_fees = round(sum(t.get("fees", 0) for t in stitched_oos_trades), 2)
equity_curve = [0.0]
running = 0.0
@@ -297,6 +313,8 @@ async def run_walk_forward(
"train_days": train_days,
"test_days": test_days,
"param_grid": param_grid,
"fee_pct": fee_pct,
"slippage_pct": slippage_pct,
"folds": fold_results,
"out_of_sample_summary": {
"trades": len(stitched_oos_trades),
@@ -305,6 +323,7 @@ async def run_walk_forward(
"win_rate": oos_win_rate,
"total_pnl": round(oos_total_pnl, 2),
"profit_factor": oos_profit_factor,
"total_fees": oos_total_fees,
"max_drawdown_pct": _max_drawdown_pct(equity_curve),
"equity_curve": equity_curve,
},
+104
View File
@@ -196,6 +196,110 @@ async def test_simulate_trades_active_from_index_skips_warmup_region(monkeypatch
assert all_signals == []
class TestFeeAndSlippage:
"""Regression tests for fee (o): backtest/walk-forward used to price
every fill at the exact candle close with zero cost, which made every
reported win rate/profit factor systematically more optimistic than
live trading could ever achieve. See DEFAULT_TAKER_FEE_PCT/
DEFAULT_SLIPPAGE_PCT and _fill_price/_open_position/_close_position in
backtest_engine.py.
"""
def test_fill_price_moves_against_the_trader(self):
mark = 100.0
slip = 0.001
# LONG entry buys -> fills higher than mark.
assert backtest_engine._fill_price(mark, "LONG", True, slip) == pytest.approx(100.1)
# LONG exit sells -> fills lower than mark.
assert backtest_engine._fill_price(mark, "LONG", False, slip) == pytest.approx(99.9)
# SHORT entry sells -> fills lower than mark.
assert backtest_engine._fill_price(mark, "SHORT", True, slip) == pytest.approx(99.9)
# SHORT exit buys -> fills higher than mark.
assert backtest_engine._fill_price(mark, "SHORT", False, slip) == pytest.approx(100.1)
async def test_reversal_exit_pnl_is_net_of_fees_and_slippage(self, monkeypatch, db_session):
_, symbol = await _seed_symbol(db_session)
base = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(hours=40)
await _seed_candles(db_session, symbol.id, "1h", base, 40, timedelta(hours=1), lambda i: i)
candles = await backtest_engine._fetch_candles(db_session, symbol.id, "1h", since=base)
precomputed = backtest_engine._precompute_indicators(candles, "1h")
# STRONG_BUY at candle 30 (price 30), STRONG_SELL at candle 35
# (price 35) reverses and closes it — a straightforward winning
# LONG before costs. The STRONG_SELL that closes it also opens a
# new SHORT in the same step (existing reversal behavior), which
# then rides to END_OF_DATA — only the first (LONG) trade matters
# for this assertion.
fake, _ = _make_fake_score_fn(buy_at={30}, sell_at={35})
monkeypatch.setattr(backtest_engine, "_compute_adjusted_score", fake)
_, trades = backtest_engine._simulate_trades(candles, precomputed, Decimal("10"))
assert len(trades) == 2
trade = trades[0]
assert trade["direction"] == "LONG"
assert trade["exit_reason"] == "REVERSAL"
fee_pct = backtest_engine.DEFAULT_TAKER_FEE_PCT
slip = backtest_engine.DEFAULT_SLIPPAGE_PCT
expected_entry = 30.0 * (1 + slip)
expected_qty = 10.0 / expected_entry
expected_exit = 35.0 * (1 - slip)
expected_gross = (expected_exit - expected_entry) * expected_qty
expected_fees = (expected_entry + expected_exit) * expected_qty * fee_pct
expected_net = expected_gross - expected_fees
assert trade["entry_price"] == pytest.approx(expected_entry)
assert trade["exit_price"] == pytest.approx(expected_exit)
assert trade["gross_pnl"] == pytest.approx(expected_gross)
assert trade["fees"] == pytest.approx(expected_fees)
assert trade["pnl"] == pytest.approx(expected_net)
# The whole point of the fix: costs must actually eat into PnL.
assert trade["pnl"] < trade["gross_pnl"]
assert trade["fees"] > 0
async def test_zero_fee_and_slippage_matches_raw_price_pnl(self, monkeypatch, db_session):
"""fee_pct=0/slippage_pct=0 must reduce to the old frictionless
behavior — fills at the exact close, no cost — so existing callers
that don't care about costs (or want to see raw signal quality)
aren't forced into a changed baseline."""
_, symbol = await _seed_symbol(db_session)
base = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(hours=40)
await _seed_candles(db_session, symbol.id, "1h", base, 40, timedelta(hours=1), lambda i: i)
candles = await backtest_engine._fetch_candles(db_session, symbol.id, "1h", since=base)
precomputed = backtest_engine._precompute_indicators(candles, "1h")
fake, _ = _make_fake_score_fn(buy_at={30}, sell_at={35})
monkeypatch.setattr(backtest_engine, "_compute_adjusted_score", fake)
_, trades = backtest_engine._simulate_trades(
candles, precomputed, Decimal("10"), fee_pct=0.0, slippage_pct=0.0,
)
trade = trades[0]
assert trade["direction"] == "LONG"
assert trade["entry_price"] == pytest.approx(30.0)
assert trade["exit_price"] == pytest.approx(35.0)
expected_qty = 10.0 / 30.0
assert trade["pnl"] == pytest.approx((35.0 - 30.0) * expected_qty)
assert trade["fees"] == pytest.approx(0.0)
async def test_compute_stats_reports_total_fees(self, monkeypatch, db_session):
_, symbol = await _seed_symbol(db_session)
base = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(hours=40)
await _seed_candles(db_session, symbol.id, "1h", base, 40, timedelta(hours=1), lambda i: i)
candles = await backtest_engine._fetch_candles(db_session, symbol.id, "1h", since=base)
precomputed = backtest_engine._precompute_indicators(candles, "1h")
fake, _ = _make_fake_score_fn(buy_at={30}, sell_at={35})
monkeypatch.setattr(backtest_engine, "_compute_adjusted_score", fake)
all_signals, trades = backtest_engine._simulate_trades(candles, precomputed, Decimal("10"))
stats = backtest_engine._compute_stats(all_signals, trades)
assert stats["trades"]["total_fees"] == pytest.approx(
sum(t["fees"] for t in trades), abs=0.01,
)
assert stats["trades"]["total_fees"] > 0
def _build_candle_series(base, prices):
return [
Candle(
+64
View File
@@ -16,12 +16,15 @@ from app.services.indicator_service import (
detect_market_regime,
ema,
macd,
market_structure,
mfi,
obv,
obv_signal,
rsi,
sma,
vwap,
_find_pivot_highs,
_find_pivot_lows,
)
@@ -264,3 +267,64 @@ class TestDetectMarketRegime:
self._adx(22), bb, atr_pct=1.0, volume_data=None,
)
assert regime == "neutral"
class TestPivotCausalConsistency:
"""A pivot at index i is only knowable once `right` bars after it exist
(see `_find_pivot_highs`/`_find_pivot_lows`'s definition). Live trading
(`candle_service.get_indicators`) calls `detect_divergence`/
`market_structure` on data "as of now" with no future bars — these
tests lock in that this is self-consistent (never claims a pivot it
can't yet know about) and never repaints (a pivot's status, once
confirmable, doesn't change as more future data arrives). This is the
same causal delay backtest_engine.py's explicit confirmed-pointer
bookkeeping was built to match (see its _PIVOT_LOOKBACK handling and
test_scores_are_causal_future_prices_dont_change_earlier_scores) — if
either side ever stopped honoring it, backtest and live would silently
diverge on how early Divergence/SMC signals fire.
"""
def _wavy_prices(self, n: int, seed: int = 0) -> list[float]:
return [100 + math.sin((i + seed) / 3.0) * 10 + (i % 5) for i in range(n)]
def test_pivot_highs_never_flag_the_last_right_bars(self):
prices = self._wavy_prices(40)
right = 3
highs = _find_pivot_highs(prices, left=right, right=right)
assert all(v is None for v in highs[-right:])
def test_pivot_lows_never_flag_the_last_right_bars(self):
prices = self._wavy_prices(40, seed=2)
right = 3
lows = _find_pivot_lows(prices, left=right, right=right)
assert all(v is None for v in lows[-right:])
def test_pivot_status_never_repaints_once_confirmable(self):
prices = self._wavy_prices(30)
right = 3
highs_before = _find_pivot_highs(prices, right, right)
lows_before = _find_pivot_lows(prices, right, right)
# More candles arrive — bars that already had enough future
# confirmation must keep the exact same pivot/non-pivot verdict.
extended = prices + [95.0, 130.0, 80.0, 140.0, 70.0, 150.0]
highs_after = _find_pivot_highs(extended, right, right)
lows_after = _find_pivot_lows(extended, right, right)
confirmable = len(prices) - right
assert highs_after[:confirmable] == highs_before[:confirmable]
assert lows_after[:confirmable] == lows_before[:confirmable]
def test_market_structure_swings_never_repaint_as_more_candles_arrive(self):
prices = self._wavy_prices(30, seed=1)
candles = [candle(p + 2, p - 2, p) for p in prices]
ms_before = market_structure(candles, pivot_lookback=3)
more_candles = candles + [
candle(122, 98, 120), candle(92, 68, 70), candle(142, 118, 140),
]
ms_after = market_structure(more_candles, pivot_lookback=3)
confirmable = len(candles) - 3
assert ms_after["swing_highs"][:confirmable] == ms_before["swing_highs"][:confirmable]
assert ms_after["swing_lows"][:confirmable] == ms_before["swing_lows"][:confirmable]
@@ -35,6 +35,8 @@ class StubAdapter:
order_id="STUB-ORDER-1",
filled=req.amount,
status="closed",
average=None,
price=None,
)
+182
View File
@@ -22,12 +22,15 @@ from sqlalchemy import select
from app.models import Exchange, HypotheticalTrade, Signal, Symbol, User
from app.models.candle import Candle
from app.models.real_trade import RealTrade
from app.services.trade_executor import (
MAX_OPEN_TRADES,
STRONG_BUY,
STRONG_SELL,
_calculate_pnl,
_recompute_realized_pnl,
execute_signal_trade,
sync_real_trades,
)
@@ -296,3 +299,182 @@ async def test_hybrid_eviction_uses_each_trades_own_symbol_price_not_incoming_si
assert closed_trades[0].exit_price == Decimal("50"), "exit price must come from REAL/USDT's own candle, not the signal's 1000"
assert closed_trades[0].pnl == Decimal("-50")
assert any(t.symbol == "NEW/USDT" and t.status == "OPEN" for t in all_trades)
def make_real_trade(user_id, symbol="BTC/USDT", side="buy", amount="1", price="100",
filled_amount=None, status="filled", created_at=None) -> RealTrade:
return RealTrade(
user_id=user_id,
exchange="mexc",
symbol=symbol,
side=side,
order_type="market",
amount=Decimal(amount),
price=Decimal(price) if price is not None else None,
filled_amount=Decimal(filled_amount if filled_amount is not None else amount),
status=status,
created_at=created_at or datetime.now(timezone.utc),
)
class TestRecomputeRealizedPnl:
"""Regression tests for the sync_real_trades() fix: `RealTrade` rows are
individual order fills (one buy or one sell), not paired open/close
positions — PnL was previously hardcoded to 0 for every trade needing
it, silently reporting "break-even" for real trades that may have won
or lost real money. `_recompute_realized_pnl` matches opposing fills
FIFO per (user, symbol, exchange) instead.
"""
async def test_opening_fill_has_no_pnl_until_something_closes_it(self, db_session):
user = make_user()
db_session.add(user)
await db_session.flush()
buy = make_real_trade(user.id, side="buy", price="100")
db_session.add(buy)
await db_session.flush()
updated = await _recompute_realized_pnl(db_session)
assert updated == 0
assert buy.pnl is None
async def test_full_close_realizes_pnl_on_the_closing_fill(self, db_session):
user = make_user()
db_session.add(user)
await db_session.flush()
t0 = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(minutes=10)
buy = make_real_trade(user.id, side="buy", amount="1", price="100", created_at=t0)
sell = make_real_trade(user.id, side="sell", amount="1", price="110", created_at=t0 + timedelta(minutes=5))
db_session.add_all([buy, sell])
await db_session.flush()
updated = await _recompute_realized_pnl(db_session)
assert updated == 1
assert buy.pnl is None, "opening fill never realizes PnL on itself"
assert sell.pnl == Decimal("10")
assert sell.pnl_percent == Decimal("10")
async def test_partial_close_realizes_pnl_only_on_matched_quantity(self, db_session):
user = make_user()
db_session.add(user)
await db_session.flush()
t0 = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(minutes=10)
buy = make_real_trade(user.id, amount="2", price="100", side="buy", created_at=t0)
sell = make_real_trade(user.id, amount="1", price="110", side="sell", created_at=t0 + timedelta(minutes=5))
db_session.add_all([buy, sell])
await db_session.flush()
await _recompute_realized_pnl(db_session)
assert sell.pnl == Decimal("10"), "only the 1 matched unit realizes, not the full 2-unit lot"
assert sell.pnl_percent == Decimal("10")
async def test_short_side_profits_when_price_falls(self, db_session):
user = make_user()
db_session.add(user)
await db_session.flush()
t0 = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(minutes=10)
# sell-first (open short) then buy-to-cover lower -> profit
open_short = make_real_trade(user.id, amount="1", price="100", side="sell", created_at=t0)
cover = make_real_trade(user.id, amount="1", price="90", side="buy", created_at=t0 + timedelta(minutes=5))
db_session.add_all([open_short, cover])
await db_session.flush()
await _recompute_realized_pnl(db_session)
assert open_short.pnl is None
assert cover.pnl == Decimal("10")
async def test_trades_without_price_are_skipped_not_matched(self, db_session):
"""A market-order fill persisted before the orders.py fix (no
order.average recorded) has price=None — it must not be treated as
a zero-cost lot that corrupts FIFO matching for real, priced fills."""
user = make_user()
db_session.add(user)
await db_session.flush()
t0 = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(minutes=10)
unpriced_buy = make_real_trade(user.id, amount="1", price=None, side="buy", created_at=t0)
sell = make_real_trade(user.id, amount="1", price="110", side="sell", created_at=t0 + timedelta(minutes=5))
db_session.add_all([unpriced_buy, sell])
await db_session.flush()
await _recompute_realized_pnl(db_session)
assert unpriced_buy.pnl is None
assert sell.pnl is None, "sell opens a new SHORT lot since the unpriced buy couldn't be matched"
async def test_different_symbols_do_not_cross_match(self, db_session):
user = make_user()
db_session.add(user)
await db_session.flush()
t0 = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(minutes=10)
buy_btc = make_real_trade(user.id, symbol="BTC/USDT", amount="1", price="100", side="buy", created_at=t0)
sell_eth = make_real_trade(user.id, symbol="ETH/USDT", amount="1", price="110", side="sell", created_at=t0 + timedelta(minutes=5))
db_session.add_all([buy_btc, sell_eth])
await db_session.flush()
await _recompute_realized_pnl(db_session)
assert buy_btc.pnl is None
assert sell_eth.pnl is None, "ETH sell must open its own SHORT lot, not close the unrelated BTC buy"
class TestSyncRealTrades:
async def test_never_filled_stale_order_is_zeroed_out(self, session_factory, monkeypatch):
import app.services.trade_executor as trade_executor_module
monkeypatch.setattr(trade_executor_module, "async_session_factory", session_factory)
async with session_factory() as db:
user = make_user()
db.add(user)
await db.flush()
stale = make_real_trade(
user.id, side="buy", amount="1", price=None, filled_amount="0",
status="open", created_at=datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(hours=25),
)
db.add(stale)
await db.commit()
stale_id = stale.id
await sync_real_trades()
async with session_factory() as db:
refreshed = await db.get(RealTrade, stale_id)
assert refreshed.status == "closed"
assert refreshed.pnl == Decimal("0")
async def test_stale_order_with_a_real_fill_gets_real_pnl_not_zero(self, session_factory, monkeypatch):
"""The bug this fixes: a stale 'open' order that DID partially fill
used to be force-closed with pnl=0 regardless of what actually
happened. If a later trade already closed that fill's position, the
FIFO recompute (run every sync) must report the real PnL instead."""
import app.services.trade_executor as trade_executor_module
monkeypatch.setattr(trade_executor_module, "async_session_factory", session_factory)
t0 = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(hours=25)
async with session_factory() as db:
user = make_user()
db.add(user)
await db.flush()
stale_buy = make_real_trade(
user.id, side="buy", amount="1", price="100", filled_amount="1",
status="open", created_at=t0,
)
closing_sell = make_real_trade(
user.id, side="sell", amount="1", price="120", filled_amount="1",
status="filled", created_at=t0 + timedelta(minutes=1),
)
db.add_all([stale_buy, closing_sell])
await db.commit()
stale_id, sell_id = stale_buy.id, closing_sell.id
await sync_real_trades()
async with session_factory() as db:
stale_refreshed = await db.get(RealTrade, stale_id)
sell_refreshed = await db.get(RealTrade, sell_id)
assert stale_refreshed.status == "closed", "stuck-open order is still force-closed after 24h"
assert stale_refreshed.pnl is None, "opening fill itself never carries the realized PnL"
assert sell_refreshed.pnl == Decimal("20"), "the closing fill must show the real, non-zero PnL"
+2 -2
View File
@@ -89,7 +89,7 @@ async def test_grid_search_picks_the_best_scoring_combo(monkeypatch):
best one and reports its stats."""
good_params = {"strong_threshold": 4.5, "signal_threshold": 1.5, "max_hold_candles": 96}
def fake_run_combo(candles, scores_series, trade_size, params):
def fake_run_combo(candles, scores_series, trade_size, params, fee_pct=None, slippage_pct=None):
if params == good_params:
trades = [{"pnl": 10.0, "status": "CLOSED", "entry_price": 100.0, "exit_price": 110.0} for _ in range(10)]
else:
@@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ async def test_grid_search_picks_the_best_scoring_combo(monkeypatch):
@pytest.mark.asyncio
async def test_grid_search_falls_back_when_every_combo_too_sparse(monkeypatch):
def fake_run_combo(candles, scores_series, trade_size, params):
def fake_run_combo(candles, scores_series, trade_size, params, fee_pct=None, slippage_pct=None):
# 1 trade, below MIN_TRADES_PER_FOLD
return [], [{"pnl": 1.0, "status": "CLOSED", "entry_price": 100.0, "exit_price": 101.0}]